Toward Black Scholes for Prediction Markets: A Unified Kernel and Market Maker's Handbook
Abstract
Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, aggregate dispersed information into tradable probabilities, but they still lack a unifying stochastic kernel comparable to the one options gained from Black-Scholes. As these markets scale with institutional participation, exchange integrations, and higher volumes around elections and macro prints, market makers face belief volatility, jump, and cross-event risks without standardized tools for quoting or hedging. We propose such a foundation: a logit jump-diffusion with risk-neutral drift that treats the traded probability p_t as a Q-martingale and exposes belief volatility, jump intensity, and dependence as quotable risk factors. On top, we build a calibration pipeline that filters microstructure noise, separates diffusion from jumps using expectation-maximization, enforces the risk-neutral drift, and yields a stable belief-volatility surface. We then define a coherent derivative layer (variance, correlation, corridor, and first-passage instruments) analogous to volatility and correlation products in option markets. In controlled experiments on synthetic risk-neutral paths and real event data, the model reduces short-horizon belief-variance forecast error relative to diffusion-only and probability-space baselines, supporting both causal calibration and economic interpretability. Conceptually, the logit jump-diffusion kernel supplies an implied-volatility analogue for prediction markets: a tractable, tradable language for quoting, hedging, and transferring belief risk across venues such as Polymarket.