STG: Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network with Fusion and Spatiotemporal Decoupling Learning for Prognostic Prediction of Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastasis
Abstract
We propose a multimodal spatiotemporal graph neural network (STG) framework to predict colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) progression. Current clinical models do not effectively integrate the tumor's spatial heterogeneity, dynamic evolution, and complex multimodal data relationships, limiting their predictive accuracy. Our STG framework combines preoperative CT imaging and clinical data into a heterogeneous graph structure, enabling joint modeling of tumor distribution and temporal evolution through spatial topology and cross-modal edges. The framework uses GraphSAGE to aggregate spatiotemporal neighborhood information and leverages supervised and contrastive learning strategies to enhance the model's ability to capture temporal features and improve robustness. A lightweight version of the model reduces parameter count by 78.55%, maintaining near-state-of-the-art performance. The model jointly optimizes recurrence risk regression and survival analysis tasks, with contrastive loss improving feature representational discriminability and cross-modal consistency. Experimental results on the MSKCC CRLM dataset show a time-adjacent accuracy of 85% and a mean absolute error of 1.1005, significantly outperforming existing methods. The innovative heterogeneous graph construction and spatiotemporal decoupling mechanism effectively uncover the associations between dynamic tumor microenvironment changes and prognosis, providing reliable quantitative support for personalized treatment decisions.