ProteuS: A Generative Approach for Simulating Concept Drift in Financial Markets
Abstract
Financial markets are complex, non-stationary systems where the underlying data distributions can shift over time, a phenomenon known as regime changes, as well as concept drift in the machine learning literature. These shifts, often triggered by major economic events, pose a significant challenge for traditional statistical and machine learning models. A fundamental problem in developing and validating adaptive algorithms is the lack of a ground truth in real-world financial data, making it difficult to evaluate a model's ability to detect and recover from these drifts. This paper addresses this challenge by introducing a novel framework, named ProteuS, for generating semi-synthetic financial time series with pre-defined structural breaks. Our methodology involves fitting ARMA-GARCH models to real-world ETF data to capture distinct market regimes, and then simulating realistic, gradual, and abrupt transitions between them. The resulting datasets, which include a comprehensive set of technical indicators, provide a controlled environment with a known ground truth of regime changes. An analysis of the generated data confirms the complexity of the task, revealing significant overlap between the different market states. We aim to provide the research community with a tool for the rigorous evaluation of concept drift detection and adaptation mechanisms, paving the way for more robust financial forecasting models.