Smart Contract-Enabled Procurement under Bounded Demand Variability: A Truncated Normal Approach
Abstract
This study develops a strategic procurement framework integrating blockchain-based smart contracts with bounded demand variability modeled through a truncated normal distribution. While existing research emphasizes the technical feasibility of smart contracts, the operational and economic implications of adoption under moderate uncertainty remain underexplored. We propose a multi-supplier model in which a centralized retailer jointly determines the optimal smart contract adoption intensity and supplier allocation decisions. The formulation endogenizes adoption costs, supplier digital readiness, and inventory penalties to capture realistic trade-offs among efficiency, sustainability, and profitability. Analytical results establish concavity and provide closed-form comparative statics for adoption thresholds and procurement quantities. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that moderate demand variability supports partial adoption strategies, whereas excessive investment in digital infrastructure can reduce overall profitability. Dynamic simulations further reveal how adaptive learning and declining implementation costs progressively enhance adoption intensity and supply chain performance. The findings provide theoretical and managerial insights for balancing digital transformation, resilience, and sustainability objectives in smart contract-enabled procurement.