CyberSec Research

Epidemic control frequently relies on adjusting interventions based on prevalence. But designing such policies is a highly non-trivial problem due to uncertain intervention effects, costs and the difficulty of quantifying key transmission mechanisms and parameters. Here, using exact mathematical and computational methods, we reveal a fundamental limit in epidemic control in that prevalence feedback policies are outperformed by a single optimally chosen constant control level. Specifically, we find no incentive to use prevalence based control under a wide class of cost functions that depend arbitrarily on interventions and scale with infections. We also identify regimes where prevalence feedback is beneficial. Our results challenge the current understanding that prevalence based interventions are required for epidemic control and suggest that, for many classes of epidemics, interventions should not be varied unless the epidemic is near the herd immunity threshold.

How regional heterogeneity in social and cultural processes drive--and respond to--climate dynamics is little studied. Here we present a coupled social-climate model stratified across five world regions and parameterized with geophysical, economic and social survey data. We find that support for mitigation evolves in a highly variable fashion across regions, according to socio-economics, climate vulnerability, and feedback from changing temperatures. Social learning and social norms can amplify existing sentiment about mitigation, leading to better or worse global warming outcomes depending on the region. Moreover, mitigation in one region, as mediated by temperature dynamics, can influence other regions to act, or just sit back, thus driving cross-regional heterogeneity in mitigation opinions. The peak temperature anomaly varies by several degrees Celsius depending on how these interactions unfold. Our model exemplifies a framework for studying how global geophysical processes interact with population-scale concerns to determine future sustainability outcomes.

Tumor-immune interactions are shaped by both antigenic heterogeneity and stochastic perturbations in the tumor microenvironment, yet the mathematical mechanisms underlying immune phase transitions remain poorly understood. We propose a four-compartment dynamical model that incorporates antigen accumulation and immune escape mutations. Bifurcation analysis reveals bistability between immune surveillance and immune escape states, providing a mechanistic explanation for heterogeneous immune outcomes during tumor progression. In the multistable regime, the stable manifold of a saddle point partitions the state space into distinct basins of attraction, determining the long-term fate of the system. We further analyze how stochastic fluctuations in the tumor microenvironment perturb these separatrices, potentially triggering irreversible state transitions. By characterizing the critical noise intensity and estimating the tipping time, we establish a mathematical framework for assessing noise-induced transitions. The model further predicts that increasing tumor cell death can improve system resilience to stochastic perturbations, whereas stronger immune pressure may facilitate immune escape-highlighting the nonlinear and non-monotonic nature of tumor-immune dynamics.

A central question in evolutionary biology is how to quantitatively understand the dynamics of genetically diverse populations. Modeling the genotype distribution is challenging, as it ultimately requires tracking all correlations (or cumulants) among alleles at different loci. The quasi-linkage equilibrium (QLE) approximation simplifies this by assuming that correlations between alleles at different loci are weak -- i.e., low linkage disequilibrium -- allowing their dynamics to be modeled perturbatively. However, QLE breaks down under strong selection, significant epistatic interactions, or weak recombination. We extend the multilocus QLE framework to allow cumulants up to order $K$ to evolve dynamically, while higher-order cumulants ($>K$) are assumed to equilibrate rapidly. This extended QLE (exQLE) framework yields a general equation of motion for cumulants up to order $K$, which parallels the standard QLE dynamics (recovered when $K = 1$). In this formulation, cumulant dynamics are driven by the gradient of average fitness, mediated by a geometrically interpretable matrix that stems from competition among genotypes. Our analysis shows that the exQLE with $K=2$ accurately captures cumulant dynamics even when the fitness function includes higher-order (e.g., third- or fourth-order) epistatic interactions, capabilities that standard QLE lacks. We also applied the exQLE framework to infer fitness parameters from temporal sequence data. Overall, exQLE provides a systematic and interpretable approximation scheme, leveraging analytical cumulant dynamics and reducing complexity by progressively truncating higher-order cumulants.

Human social life is shaped by repeated interactions, where past experiences guide future behavior. In evolutionary game theory, a key challenge is to identify strategies that harness such memory to succeed in repeated encounters. Decades of research have identified influential one-step memory strategies (such as Tit-for-Tat, Generous Tit-for-Tat, and Win-Stay Lose-Shift) that promote cooperation in iterated pairwise games. However, these strategies occupy only a small corner of the vast strategy space, and performance in isolated pairwise contests does not guarantee evolutionary success. The most effective strategies are those that can spread through a population and stabilize cooperation. We propose a general framework for repeated-interaction strategies that encompasses arbitrary memory lengths, diverse informational inputs (including both one's own and the opponent's past actions), and deterministic or stochastic decision rules. We analyze their evolutionary dynamics and derive general mathematical results for the emergence of cooperation in any network structure. We then introduce a unifying indicator that quantifies the contribution of repeated-interaction strategies to population-level cooperation. Applying this indicator, we show that long-memory strategies evolve to promote cooperation more effectively than short-memory strategies, challenging the traditional view that extended memory offers no advantage. This work expands the study of repeated interactions beyond one-step memory strategies to the full spectrum of memory capacities. It provides a plausible explanation for the high levels of cooperation observed in human societies, which traditional one-step memory models cannot account for.

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease common in tropical areas, is spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Temperature changes driven by climate affect vector ecology and expand regions of species coexistence. The combined effect of temperature and larval competition on mosquito dynamics and dengue transmission is unclear. We built a deterministic model with temperature-dependent parameters to study larval-stage interactions, linked with a SEIR framework for human infection. We assessed invasion potential, coexistence, and infection peaks. The basic reproduction number (R0) was calculated using the Next Generation Matrix, and the effective reproduction number (Rt) came from simulations with larval competition. Aedes albopictus invades aegypti-dominated systems when the aegypti competition coefficient is below 0.47, with neutral equilibrium from 0.47 to 0.60 and exclusion above 0.60 in stable conditions. In temperature-dependent settings, invasion extends to a coefficient of 0.75. Coexistence analysis showed aegypti dominance (~87% abundance) in stable settings, while temperature-dependent conditions led to ~50% abundance for both species. Dengue cases peaked at 156-168 in stable conditions and 195-220 in temperature-dependent ones. Stronger albopictus competition lowered peaks in both cases. Temperature boosts albopictus invasion and coexistence, while aegypti drives higher infection peaks. Balanced species abundances raise transmission risks, emphasizing the need to factor temperature and competition into vector control.

While monitoring biodiversity through camera traps has become an important endeavor for ecological research, identifying species in the captured image data remains a major bottleneck due to limited labeling resources. Active learning -- a machine learning paradigm that selects the most informative data to label and train a predictive model -- offers a promising solution, but typically focuses on uncertainty in the individual predictions without considering uncertainty across the entire dataset. We introduce a new active learning policy, Vendi information gain (VIG), that selects images based on their impact on dataset-wide prediction uncertainty, capturing both informativeness and diversity. We applied VIG to the Snapshot Serengeti dataset and compared it against common active learning methods. VIG needs only 3% of the available data to reach 75% accuracy, a level that baselines require more than 10% of the data to achieve. With 10% of the data, VIG attains 88% predictive accuracy, 12% higher than the best of the baselines. This improvement in performance is consistent across metrics and batch sizes, and we show that VIG also collects more diverse data in the feature space. VIG has broad applicability beyond ecology, and our results highlight its value for biodiversity monitoring in data-limited environments.

This paper investigates a behavioral-feedback SIR model in which the infection rate adapts dynamically based on the fractions of susceptible and infected individuals. We introduce an invariant of motion and we characterize the peak of infection. We further examine the system under a threshold constraint on the infection level. Based on this analysis, we formulate an optimal control problem to keep the infection curve below a healthcare capacity threshold while minimizing the economic cost. For this problem, we study a feasible strategy that involves applying the minimal necessary restrictions to meet the capacity constraint and characterize the corresponding cost.

We develop a framework for non-Markovian SIR and SIS models beyond mean field, utilizing the continuous-time random walk formalism. Using a gamma distribution for the infection and recovery inter-event times as a test case, we derive asymptotical late-time master equations with effective memory kernels and obtain analytical predictions for the final outbreak size distribution in the SIR model, and quasistationary distribution and disease lifetime in the SIS model. We show that increasing memory can greatly widen the outbreak size distribution and reduce the disease lifetime. We also show that rescaled Markovian models fail to capture fluctuations in the non-Markovian case. Overall, our findings, confirmed against numerical simulations, demonstrate that memory strongly shapes epidemic dynamics and paves the way for extending such analyses to structured populations.

Co-occurrence network inference algorithms have significantly advanced our understanding of microbiome communities. However, these algorithms typically analyze microbial associations within samples collected from a single environmental niche, often capturing only static snapshots rather than dynamic microbial processes. Previous studies have commonly grouped samples from different environmental niches together without fully considering how microbial communities adapt their associations when faced with varying ecological conditions. Our study addresses this limitation by explicitly investigating both spatial and temporal dynamics of microbial communities. We analyzed publicly available microbiome abundance data across multiple locations and time points, to evaluate algorithm performance in predicting microbial associations using our proposed Same-All Cross-validation (SAC) framework. SAC evaluates algorithms in two distinct scenarios: training and testing within the same environmental niche (Same), and training and testing on combined data from multiple environmental niches (All). To overcome the limitations of conventional algorithms, we propose fuser, an algorithm that, while not entirely new in machine learning, is novel for microbiome community network inference. It retains subsample-specific signals while simultaneously sharing relevant information across environments during training. Unlike standard approaches that infer a single generalized network from combined data, fuser generates distinct, environment-specific predictive networks. Our results demonstrate that fuser achieves comparable predictive performance to existing algorithms such as glmnet when evaluated within homogeneous environments (Same), and notably reduces test error compared to baseline algorithms in cross-environment (All) scenarios.

Indirect reciprocity promotes cooperation by allowing individuals to help others based on reputation rather than direct reciprocation. Because it relies on accurate reputation information, its effectiveness can be undermined by information gaps. We examine two forms of incomplete information: incomplete observation, in which donor actions are observed only probabilistically, and reputation fading, in which recipient reputations are sometimes classified as "Unknown". Using analytical frameworks for public assessment, we show that these seemingly similar models yield qualitatively different outcomes. Under incomplete observation, the conditions for cooperation are unchanged, because less frequent updates are exactly offset by higher reputational stakes. In contrast, reputation fading hinders cooperation, requiring higher benefit-to-cost ratios as the identification probability decreases. We then evaluate costly punishment as a third action alongside cooperation and defection. Norms incorporating punishment can sustain cooperation across broader parameter ranges without reducing efficiency in the reputation fading model. This contrasts with previous work, which found punishment ineffective under a different type of information limitation, and highlights the importance of distinguishing between types of information constraints. Finally, we review past studies to identify when punishment is effective and when it is not in indirect reciprocity.

The evolutionary origins of ageing and age-associated diseases continue to pose a fundamental question in biology. This study is concerned with a recently proposed framework, which conceptualises development and ageing as a continuous process, driven by genetically encoded epigenetic changes in target sets of cells. According to the Evolvable Soma Theory of Ageing (ESTA), ageing reflects the cumulative manifestation of epigenetic changes that are predominantly expressed during the post-reproductive phase. These late-acting modifications are not yet evolutionarily optimised but are instead subject to ongoing selection, functioning as somatic "experiments" through which evolution explores novel phenotypic variation. These experiments are often detrimental, leading to progressive physical decline and eventual death, while a small subset may produce beneficial adaptations, that evolution can exploit to shape future developmental trajectories. According to ESTA, ageing can be understood as evolution in action, yet old age is also the strongest risk factor for major diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, and metabolic syndrome. We argue that this association is not merely correlational but causal: the same epigenetic process that drive development and ageing also underlie age-associated diseases. Growing evidence points to epigenetic regulation as a central factor in these pathologies, since no consistent patterns of genetic mutations have been identified, whereas widespread regulatory and epigenetic disruptions are observed. From this perspective, evolution is not only the driver of ageing but also the ultimate source of the diseases that accompany it, making it the root cause of most age-related pathologies.

Timely and robust influenza incidence forecasting is critical for public health decision-making. This paper presents MAESTRO (Multi-modal Adaptive Estimation for Temporal Respiratory Disease Outbreak), a novel, unified framework that synergistically integrates advanced spectro-temporal modeling with multi-modal data fusion, including surveillance, web search trends, and meteorological data. By adaptively weighting heterogeneous data sources and decomposing complex time series patterns, the model achieves robust and accurate forecasts. Evaluated on over 11 years of Hong Kong influenza data (excluding the COVID-19 period), MAESTRO demonstrates state-of-the-art performance, achieving a superior model fit with an R-square of 0.956. Extensive ablations confirm the significant contributions of its multi-modal and spectro-temporal components. The modular and reproducible pipeline is made publicly available to facilitate deployment and extension to other regions and pathogens, presenting a powerful tool for epidemiological forecasting.

On May 15, 2025, Brazil reported its first highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in a commercial poultry breeder farm in Montenegro, Rio Grande do Sul. This study presents the outbreak timeline, control measures, along with spatial risk assessment and epidemiological model used to simulate detection delays. The transmission model considered Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered Dead farm statuses to simulate within farm and between farm dynamics under 3 day, 5 day, and 10 day detection delays. The single infected commercial farm lost 15,650 birds, with 92% mortality due to HPAI, and additional culling of the remaining birds on Day 5 post-notification to the state animal health officials. Based on the mortality and outbreak response data, the introduction likely occurred 3 10 days before its official detection. Our field investigations suggested that wild birds were the most likely source of introduction, although biosecurity breaches could not be ruled out. Control measures implemented included movement restrictions and a control zone, from which 4,197 vehicles were inspected upon entry. Risk analysis classified 64.4% of municipalities as low risk, 35.0% as medium risk, and 0.6% as high risk. Our HPAI disease simulation results showed that the number of secondary infections would increase from a median of 4 farms (IQR 2 5) with a 3 day delay to 6 (IQR 3 22) and 34 (IQR 12 47) farms with 5 day and 10 day delays, respectively. The rapid veterinary response eliminated the outbreak within 32 days of detection, highlighting the critical role of early detection and prompt response.

We identify a novel scenario for hyperuniformity in a generic model of population dynamics that has been recently introduced to account for biological memory in the immune system and epigenetic inheritance. In this model, individuals' competition over a shared resource guides the population towards a critical steady state with prolonged individual life time. Here we uncover that the spatially extended model is characterized by hyperuniform density fluctuations. A hydrodynamic theory is derived by explicit coarse-graining, which shows good agreement with numerical simulations. Unlike previous models for non-equilibrium hyperuniform states, our model does not exhibit conservation laws, even when approaching criticality. Instead, we trace the emergence of hyperuniformity to the divergence of timescales close to criticality. These findings can have applications in engineering, cellular population dynamics and ecology.

Vaccination against the SARS-CoV-2 disease has significantly reduced its mortality rate and spread. However, despite its availability, a considerable proportion of the public has either refused or delayed getting vaccinated. This reluctance is known as vaccine hesitancy. The aim of this paper is to present a mathematical model to investigate how social interaction can impact vaccine hesitancy. The model describes the temporal transitions between different vaccination classes of the population (those vaccinated, those who are not yet vaccinated but agree to be vaccinated, and those who refuse). We apply the model to state and national survey data from the USA to estimate model parameters that quantify the rates at which public opinion on vaccination changes. Moreover, we investigate how political trends and demographic factors, such as age and education, impact these parameters. Our results show that state-level political affiliation, age, and educational level shape opinions on vaccination and have a strong influence on the temporal dynamics of attitude changes.

Indirect reciprocity is a key mechanism for large-scale cooperation. This mechanism captures the insight that in part, people help others to build and maintain a good reputation. To enable such cooperation, appropriate social norms are essential. They specify how individuals should act based on each others' reputations, and how reputations are updated in response to individual actions. Although previous work has identified several norms that sustain cooperation, a complete analytical characterization of all evolutionarily stable norms remains lacking, especially when assessments or actions are noisy. In this study, we provide such a characterization for the public assessment regime. This characterization reproduces known results, such as the leading eight norms, but it extends to more general cases, allowing for various types of errors and additional actions including costly punishment. We also identify norms that impose a fixed payoff on any mutant strategy, analogous to the zero-determinant strategies in direct reciprocity. These results offer a rigorous foundation for understanding the evolution of cooperation through indirect reciprocity and the critical role of social norms.

Mutualistic interactions, where individuals from different species can benefit from each other, are widespread across ecosystems. This study develops a general deterministic model of mutualism involving two populations, assuming that mutualism may involve both costs and benefits for the interacting individuals, leading to density-dependent effects on the dynamics of the two species. This framework aims at generalizing pre-existing models, by allowing the ecological interactions to transition from mutualistic to parasitic when the respective densities of interacting species change. Through ordinary differential equations and phase portrait analysis, we derive general principles governing these systems, identifying sufficient conditions for the emergence of certain dynamic behaviors. In particular, we show that limit cycles can arise when interactions include parasitic phases but are absent in strictly mutualistic regimes. This framework provides a general approach for characterizing the population dynamics of interacting species and highlights the effect of the transitions from mutualism to parasitism due to density dependence.