CyberSec Research

This study explored how advanced budgeting techniques and economic indicators influence funding levels and strategic alignment in California Community Colleges (CCCs). Despite widespread implementation of budgeting reforms, many CCCs continue to face challenges aligning financial planning with institutional missions, particularly in supporting diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. The study used a quantitative correlational design, analyzing 30 years of publicly available economic data, including unemployment rates, GDP growth, and CPI, in relation to CCC funding trends. Results revealed a strong positive correlation between GDP growth and CCC funding levels, as well as between CPI and funding levels, underscoring the predictive value of macroeconomic indicators in budget planning. These findings emphasize the need for educational leaders to integrate economic forecasting into budget planning processes to safeguard institutional effectiveness and sustain programs serving underrepresented student populations.

This article proposes a complementary theoretical framework in behavioural finance by interpreting financial markets during boom-and-bust episodes as a Le Bonian crowd. While behavioural finance has documented the limits of individual rationality through biases and heuristics, these contributions remain primarily microeconomic. A second, more macroeconomic strand appears to treat market instability as the aggregated result of individual biases, although it generally does so without an explicit theoretical account of how such aggregation operates. In contrast, this paper adopts a macro-psychological -and therefore macroeconomic -perspective, drawing on classical crowd psychology (Le Bon, 1895; Tarde, 1901; Freud, 1921). The central claim is that during speculative booms and crashes, markets behave as psychological crowds governed by unconscious processes, suggestion, emotional contagion, and impulsive action. These episodes cannot be understood merely as the sum of individual departures from rationality, but as the emergence of a collective mental state that follows its own psychological laws. By reintroducing crowd psychology into behavioural finance, this paper clarifies the mechanisms through which market-wide irrationality arises and offers a theoretical foundation for a macrobehavioural understanding of financial instability.

This paper develops and empirically implements a continuous functional framework for analyzing systemic risk in financial networks, building on the dynamic spatial treatment effect methodology established in our previous studies. We extend the Navier-Stokes-based approach from our previous studies to characterize contagion dynamics in the European banking system through the spectral properties of network evolution operators. Using high-quality bilateral exposure data from the European Banking Authority Transparency Exercise (2014-2023), we estimate the causal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on network fragility using spatial difference-in-differences methods adapted from our previous studies. Our empirical analysis reveals that COVID-19 elevated network fragility, measured by the algebraic connectivity $\lambda_2$ of the system Laplacian, by 26.9% above pre-pandemic levels (95% CI: [7.4%, 46.5%], p<0.05), with effects persisting through 2023. Paradoxically, this occurred despite a 46% reduction in the number of banks, demonstrating that consolidation increased systemic vulnerability by intensifying interconnectedness-consistent with theoretical predictions from continuous spatial dynamics. Our findings validate the key predictions from \citet{kikuchi2024dynamical}: treatment effects amplify over time through spatial spillovers, consolidation increases fragility when coupling strength rises, and systems exhibit structural hysteresis preventing automatic reversion to pre-shock equilibria. The results demonstrate the empirical relevance of continuous functional methods for financial stability analysis and provide new insights for macroprudential policy design. We propose network-based capital requirements targeting spectral centrality and stress testing frameworks incorporating diffusion dynamics to address the coupling externalities identified in our analysis.

Financial networks based on Pearson correlations have been intensively studied. However, previous studies may have led to misleading and catastrophic results because of several critical shortcomings of the Pearson correlation. The local Gaussian correlation coefficient, a new measurement of statistical dependence between variables, has unique advantages including capturing local nonlinear dependence and handling heavy-tailed distributions. This study constructs financial networks using the local Gaussian correlation coefficients between tail regions of stock returns in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The work systematically analyzes fundamental network metrics including node centrality, average shortest path length, and entropy. Compared with the local Gaussian correlation network among positive tails and the conventional Pearson correlation network, the properties of the local Gaussian correlation network among negative tails are more sensitive to the stock market risks. This finding suggests researchers should prioritize the local Gaussian correlation network among negative tails. Future work should reevaluate existing findings using the local Gaussian correlation method.

Investment style groups investment approaches to predict portfolio return variations. This study examines the relationship between investment style, style consistency, and risk-adjusted returns of Indian equity mutual funds. The methodology involves estimating size and style beta coefficients, identifying breakpoints, analysing investment styles, and assessing risk-shifting intensity. Funds transition across styles over time, reflecting rotation, drift, or strengthening trends. Many Mid Blend funds remain in the same category, while others shift to Large Blend or Mid Value, indicating value-oriented strategies or large-cap exposure. Some funds adopt high-return styles like Small Value and Small Blend, aiming for alpha through small-cap equities. Performance changes following risk structure shifts are analyzed by comparing pre- and post-shift metrics, showing that style adjustments can enhance returns based on market conditions. This study contributes to mutual fund evaluation literature by highlighting the impact of style transitions on returns.

We study the dynamic investment decisions of investors who prioritise specific quantiles of outcomes over their expected values. Downside-focused agents targeting low quantiles reduce risk in states with high variance, while those with a preference for high quantiles concentrate in sleeves with high dispersion when there is potential for upside. These results provide a microfoundation for volatility management, demonstrating that reducing exposure in volatile states is an optimal response for risk-averse investors and rationalising inverse-variance heuristics. We propose a distributional actor-critic algorithm that learns time-consistent policies tailored to these specific risks, irrespective of the utilitys functional form. The quantile value can be mapped onto interpretable tilts, and the performance of empirically chosen portfolios aligns with investors objectives.

Cryptocurrencies are coming of age. We organize empirical regularities into ten stylized facts and analyze cryptocurrency through the lens of empirical asset pricing. We find important similarities with traditional markets -- risk-adjusted performance is broadly comparable, and the cross-section of returns can be summarized by a small set of factors. However, cryptocurrency also has its own distinct character: jumps are frequent and large, and blockchain information helps drive prices. This common set of facts provides evidence that cryptocurrency is emerging as an investable asset class.

We present the unified market-based description of returns and variances of the trades with shares of a particular security, of the trades with shares of all securities in the market, and of the trades with the market portfolio. We consider the investor who doesn't trade the shares of his portfolio he collected at time t0 in the past. The investor observes the time series of the current trades with all securities made in the market during the averaging interval. The investor may convert these time series into the time series that model the trades with all securities as the trades with a single security and into the time series that model the trades with the market portfolio as the trades with a single security. That establishes the same description of the returns and variances of the trades with a single security, the trades with all securities in the market, and the market portfolio. We show that the market-based variance, which accounts for the impact of random change of the volumes of consecutive trades with securities, takes the form of Markowitz's (1952) portfolio variance if the volumes of consecutive trades with all market securities are assumed constant. That highlights that Markowitz's (1952) variance ignores the effects of random volumes of consecutive trades. We compare the market-based variances of the market portfolio and of the trades with all market securities, consider the importance of the duration of the averaging interval, and explain the economic obstacles that limit the accuracy of the predictions of the returns and variances at best by Gaussian distributions. The same methods describe the returns and variances of any portfolio and the trades with its securities.

We introduce a family of chronologically consistent, instruction-following large language models to eliminate lookahead bias. Each model is trained only on data available before a clearly defined knowledge-cutoff date, ensuring strict temporal separation from any post-cutoff data. The resulting framework offers (i) a simple, conversational chat interface, (ii) fully open, fixed model weights that guarantee replicability, and (iii) a conservative lower bound on forecast accuracy, isolating the share of predictability that survives once training leakage is removed. Together, these features provide researchers with an easy-to-use generative AI tool useful for a wide range of prediction tasks that is free of lookahead bias.

I identify a new signaling channel in ESG research by empirically examining whether environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing remains valuable as large institutional investors increasingly shift toward artificial intelligence (AI). Using winsorized ESG scores of S&P 500 firms from Yahoo Finance and controlling for market value of equity, I conduct cross-sectional regressions to test the signaling mechanism. I demonstrate that Environmental, Social, Governance, and composite ESG scores strongly and positively signal higher debt-to-total-capital ratio, both individually and in various combinations. My findings contribute to the growing literature on ESG investing, offering economically meaningful signaling channel with implications for long-term portfolio management amid the rise of AI.

This study develops an interpretable machine learning framework to forecast startup outcomes, including funding, patenting, and exit. A firm-quarter panel for 2010-2023 is constructed from Crunchbase and matched to U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) data. Three horizons are evaluated: next funding within 12 months, patent-stock growth within 24 months, and exit through an initial public offering (IPO) or acquisition within 36 months. Preprocessing is fit on a development window (2010-2019) and applied without change to later cohorts to avoid leakage. Class imbalance is addressed using inverse-prevalence weights and the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique for Nominal and Continuous features (SMOTE-NC). Logistic regression and tree ensembles, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, are compared using the area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Patent, funding, and exit predictions achieve AUROC values of 0.921, 0.817, and 0.872, providing transparent and reproducible rankings for innovation finance.

Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are known to play a vital role in economic growth, employment, and innovation. However, they tend to face significant challenges in accessing credit due to limited financial histories, collateral constraints, and exposure to macroeconomic shocks. These challenges make an accurate credit risk assessment by lenders crucial, particularly since SMEs frequently operate within interconnected firm networks through which default risk can propagate. This paper presents and tests a novel approach for modelling the risk of SME credit, using a unique large data set of SME loans provided by a prominent financial institution. Specifically, our approach employs Graph Neural Networks to predict SME default using multilayer network data derived from common ownership and financial transactions between firms. We show that combining this information with traditional structured data not only improves application scoring performance, but also explicitly models contagion risk between companies. Further analysis shows how the directionality and intensity of these connections influence financial risk contagion, offering a deeper understanding of the underlying processes. Our findings highlight the predictive power of network data, as well as the role of supply chain networks in exposing SMEs to correlated default risk.

This study develops a strategic procurement framework integrating blockchain-based smart contracts with bounded demand variability modeled through a truncated normal distribution. While existing research emphasizes the technical feasibility of smart contracts, the operational and economic implications of adoption under moderate uncertainty remain underexplored. We propose a multi-supplier model in which a centralized retailer jointly determines the optimal smart contract adoption intensity and supplier allocation decisions. The formulation endogenizes adoption costs, supplier digital readiness, and inventory penalties to capture realistic trade-offs among efficiency, sustainability, and profitability. Analytical results establish concavity and provide closed-form comparative statics for adoption thresholds and procurement quantities. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that moderate demand variability supports partial adoption strategies, whereas excessive investment in digital infrastructure can reduce overall profitability. Dynamic simulations further reveal how adaptive learning and declining implementation costs progressively enhance adoption intensity and supply chain performance. The findings provide theoretical and managerial insights for balancing digital transformation, resilience, and sustainability objectives in smart contract-enabled procurement.

Research has shown banks match interest income and expense betas, and thereby obtain net interest income margins which are insensitive to changes in short-term interest rates. The present analysis extends this research in a number of ways. First, we use state-space methods to estimate time-varying betas and test whether they are matched at each time interval. We find substantial variation in interest income and expense betas, which drives variation in net interest margin beta coefficients. Second, we estimate the time-varying conditional volatility of beta forecasts the uncertainty of future beta values. We find uncertainty in interest expense beta coefficients drives uncertainty in interest income betas. Further, large banks have greater expense beta uncertainty, whereas small banks have greater income beta uncertainty. Lastly, we find evidence that uncertainty in interest expense betas is priced by the market, and is negatively related to bank stock prices. This is a new and previously unmeasured source of unhedgeable risk in bank stocks, and highlights an additional benefit of the Federal Reserve's Zero Interest Rate Policy.

This study develops and analyzes an optimization model of smart contract adoption under bounded risk, linking structural theory with simulation and real-world validation. We examine how adoption intensity alpha is structurally pinned at a boundary solution, invariant to variance and heterogeneity, while profitability and service outcomes are variance-fragile, eroding under volatility and heavy-tailed demand. A sharp threshold in the fixed cost parameter A3 triggers discontinuous adoption collapse (H1), variance shocks reduce profits monotonically but not adoption (H2), and additional results on readiness heterogeneity (H3), profit-service co-benefits (H4), and distributional robustness (H5) confirm the duality between stable adoption and fragile payoffs. External validity checks further establish convergence of sample average approximation at the canonical O(1/sqrt(N)) rate (H6). Empirical validation using S&P 500 returns and the MovieLens100K dataset corroborates the theoretical structure: bounded and heavy-tailed distributions fit better than Gaussian models, and profits diverge across volatility regimes even as adoption remains stable. Taken together, the results demonstrate that adoption choices are robust to uncertainty, but their financial consequences are highly fragile. For operations and finance, this duality underscores the need for risk-adjusted performance evaluation, option-theoretic modeling, and distributional stress testing in strategic investment and supply chain design.

This study develops an inverse portfolio optimization framework for recovering latent investor preferences including risk aversion, transaction cost sensitivity, and ESG orientation from observed portfolio allocations. Using controlled synthetic data, we assess the estimator's statistical properties such as consistency, coverage, and dynamic regret. The model integrates robust optimization and regret-based inference to quantify welfare losses under preference misspecification and market shocks. Simulation experiments demonstrate accurate recovery of transaction cost parameters, partial identifiability of ESG penalties, and sublinear regret even under stochastic volatility and liquidity shocks. A real-data illustration using ETFs confirms that transaction-cost shocks dominate volatility shocks in welfare impact. The framework thus provides a statistically rigorous and economically interpretable tool for robust preference inference and portfolio design under uncertainty.

Background: Chronic diseases impose a sustained burden on healthcare systems through progressive deterioration and long-term costs. Although adherence-enhancing interventions are widely promoted, their return on investment (ROI) remains uncertain, particularly under heterogeneous patient behavior and socioeconomic variation. Methods: We developed a simulation-based framework integrating disease progression, time-varying adherence, and policy timing. Cumulative healthcare costs were modeled over a 10-year horizon using continuous-time stochastic formulations calibrated with Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data stratified by income. ROI was estimated across adherence gains (delta) and policy costs (gamma). Results: Early and adaptive interventions yielded the highest ROI by sustaining adherence and slowing progression. ROI exceeded 20 percent when delta >= 0.20 and gamma <= 1.5, whereas low-impact or high-cost policies failed to break even. Subgroup analyses showed a 32 percent ROI gap between the lowest and highest income strata, with projected savings of 312 USD per patient versus baseline. Sensitivity tests confirmed robustness under stochastic adherence and inflation variability. Conclusions: The framework provides a transparent and adaptable tool for evaluating cost-effective adherence strategies. By linking behavioral effectiveness with fiscal feasibility, it supports the design of robust and equitable chronic disease policies. Reported ROI values represent conservative lower bounds, and extensions incorporating DALYs and QALYs illustrate scalability toward full health outcome integration.

Decentralized coordination and digital contracting are becoming critical in complex industrial ecosystems, yet existing approaches often rely on ad hoc heuristics or purely technical blockchain implementations without a rigorous economic foundation. This study develops a mechanism design framework for smart contract-based resource allocation that explicitly embeds efficiency and fairness in decentralized coordination. We establish the existence and uniqueness of contract equilibria, extending classical results in mechanism design, and introduce a decentralized price adjustment algorithm with provable convergence guarantees that can be implemented in real time. To evaluate performance, we combine extensive synthetic benchmarks with a proof-of-concept real-world dataset (MovieLens). The synthetic tests probe robustness under fee volatility, participation shocks, and dynamic demand, while the MovieLens case study illustrates how the mechanism can balance efficiency and fairness in realistic allocation environments. Results demonstrate that the proposed mechanism achieves substantial improvements in both efficiency and equity while remaining resilient to abrupt perturbations, confirming its stability beyond steady state analysis. The findings highlight broad managerial and policy relevance for supply chains, logistics, energy markets, healthcare resource allocation, and public infrastructure, where transparent and auditable coordination is increasingly critical. By combining theoretical rigor with empirical validation, the study shows how digital contracts can serve not only as technical artifacts but also as institutional instruments for transparency, accountability, and resilience in high-stakes resource allocation.